What I’m telling clients right now is that the market is catching its breath in a Goldilocks expansion. The data shows a positive yield curve at 2.26%, stable credit spreads, and a labor market that’s cooling but not collapsing. That’s the environment we’re in. My confidence in this regime is about 70%, which means we’re positioned for resilience, not runaway acceleration. The plumbing is functioning, with investment-grade spreads around 95 basis points showing no immediate s

What I'm telling clients this week: the market narrative is evolving, but the fundamentals remain steady. As economic data pours in, stock futures have shown resilience, albeit with a touch of volatility, as seen with the SPX easing by 0.4% to 6,817. This slight pullback is more of a valuation recalibration than a sign of distress. The cost of capital remains elevated, with the 10Y yield at 4.18%, yet the curve is signaling a positive shift. The 2s/10s spread has swung to +64

The tension in markets this week is the gap between how jumpy prices feel and how steady the underlying data still look. The S&P 500 is hovering near record territory around 6,870, barely 1–2% off its recent highs, hardly the behavior of an index pricing in imminent recession. Short rates have stopped marching higher, long rates have settled, and yet day-to-day equity moves carry that uneasy, “something must be wrong” tone. What the numbers actually show is a late-cycle econo

What I’m telling clients this week: the market is catching its breath, not breaking. The tape still rhymes with a late‑cycle slowdown, not a crash. U.S. GDP is running about 1½–2%, Europe is hugging zero, Japan just above 1%. Unemployment has drifted only a few tenths off the lows, wage growth has cooled toward ~4%, and core inflation is gliding into the high‑2% zone in the U.S. and the low‑3% range in Europe. That’s disinflation without choking growth, which gives the Fed an