How I Knew the Market Was Bottoming (And What I Learned from April 2025)

There’s a moment in every investor’s life when the market punches you in the face. Hard.

For me, one of those moments came in early April 2025. Stocks were falling fast, headlines were full of panic, and almost everyone I knew was either frozen in fear or dumping positions at a loss. And to be honest, I felt the fear too.

But I also felt something else: curiosity.

Because while most people were looking at the falling prices, I was watching the signals. Not just the numbers — but the behavior, the emotion, the rhythm of the market. And that’s what helped me recognize what turned out to be the bottom.

Let me take you back.

April 8, 2025 – The Day It Felt Like the World Was Ending

The S&P 500 (I track it through SPY) had been sliding for days. From $564 down to $496 in just under a week. That’s a serious correction. On April 8, my screen was glowing red. Everyone was selling — retail traders, funds, maybe even your grandma.

But here’s what caught my attention: the volume. It was massive. Two to three times the normal daily trading volume. That’s not normal selling. That’s what I call capitulation — when investors throw in the towel, not because they’ve made a thoughtful decision, but because they just can’t take the pain anymore.

It reminded me of a phrase I once heard: “Markets bottom on panic, not peace.” And this... this felt like panic.

At the same time, I checked the VIX — the so-called “fear index.” It had spiked to above 50. For context, anything over 30 is already high. 50? That’s screaming. That’s fear hitting its peak.

So here we were: massive volume, extreme fear, and a market that was completely oversold. It didn’t guarantee a bottom — nothing ever does — but I’d seen this movie before.

April 9 – From Panic to Power

The next day, something incredible happened. SPY didn’t just bounce — it roared. Up more than 9 percent in a single day. That kind of move is rare. And when it follows a violent selloff? That’s often your reversal.

It felt like someone turned the lights back on. I imagined all the short-sellers scrambling to cover, and the institutions who had been sitting quietly on cash stepping in, grabbing bargains while everyone else was still catching their breath.

What was wild was how fast sentiment changed. Just one day earlier, it felt like the market was collapsing. Now? Opportunity was everywhere — if you had the stomach for it.

What I Did (And What You Can Do Next Time)

Now, I didn’t go all-in on April 8. I’ve learned that trying to nail the exact bottom is a dangerous game. But

I did start building a position that day — just a third of what I planned. That’s how I manage risk. When I saw confirmation on April 9 with that huge rebound, I added more. Then, a few days later, once prices started to stabilize and form higher lows, I completed the position.

That’s what I call a staged entry. It keeps you from being paralyzed by fear and protects you from being too early.

So What’s the Big Lesson?

Here’s what I took away from April 2025:

1. Fear creates opportunity, but only if you’re looking for the right signs.

2. Volume and volatility tell a story. If everyone’s panicking, that’s when you want to lean in — carefully.

3. You don’t need to be perfect. Just consistent, patient, and a little brave when it matters most.

And most importantly, you need a system. Not one that relies on prediction — but one that helps you act when the evidence is strong and everyone else is frozen.

Checklist: What I Watch at Every Market Bottom

These are the five things I always look for when the market starts to melt down:

1. Capitulation Volume

   • Is trading volume two to three times the average?

   • Are sellers dumping at any price?

2. VIX Spike

   • Has the Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above 30?

   • Has it peaked and started to fall?

3. Price Action Patterns

   • Sharp V-shaped moves, hammer candles, or big reversal days

   • First signs of higher lows or rebound

4. Options Activity

   • Are institutions shifting from puts to calls?

   • Are there spikes in call volume across beaten-down sectors?

5. Momentum Divergence

   • Is price making new lows while RSI or MACD are making higher lows?

   • 
     

My 3-Step Entry Plan at Market Bottoms

Whenever multiple signals are flashing green, I follow this entry playbook:

Step 1: Initial Entry (25 to 33 percent)When I see capitulation volume, extreme fear, or VIX over 30Example: April 8, 2025

Step 2: Add on Confirmation (Next 25 to 33 percent)After a strong reversal day — typically a 5 to 10 percent rebound on high volumeExample: April 9, 2025

Step 3: Full Position (Final 33 to 50 percent)When the market consolidates, forms higher lows, and confirms a new uptrendExample: April 14 to 15, 2025

Final Word

I don’t pretend to be a market prophet. But I do believe that bottoms, just like tops, leave clues. If you build your system, stay calm, and learn to read the signs — you don’t need to predict the future. You just need to act when the time is right.

Next time the market feels like it’s falling apart, remember April 2025 — and stay ready.