How I Spotted a Turning Point in Marvell Technology (MRVL)

June 10, 2025

Last Tuesday, I came across something interesting—Marvell Technology, or MRVL for short, had just formed what looked like a textbook reversal pattern.

Now, before we go further: this isn’t about whether you should buy the stock. I’m not here to recommend tickers. I’m using this blog to walk through the thinking—how I identify setups that might become opportunities, and what I look for when the noise is loud but the signals are quietly shifting.

MRVL’s story recently became a good case study.

Step 1: The Price Action Caught My Eye

When a stock falls nearly 60%—in this case, from $127 in January to under $50 in April—it's worth asking: is this broken sentiment, or a broken business?

In MRVL’s case, what stood out to me on June 3 was the double bottom pattern that had formed between late April and May around $48–50. That’s a technical formation that often signals a change in direction, and when paired with volume, it carries weight.

What made it more interesting was what followed. On June 4, MRVL surged above its 50-day moving average—on volume north of 27 million shares. That wasn’t just noise. It was the strongest volume day since the January peak. Over the next two days, volume stayed elevated. Institutions were clearly active.

Step 2: Then I Looked at the Numbers

MRVL had just reported earnings on May 30. And the results? Much stronger than I expected.

• Revenue came in at $1.895 billion, up 63% year-over-year

• EPS jumped from $0.24 to $0.62—that’s a 158% increase

• It marked five straight quarters of sequential revenue growth

• They also beat analyst estimates, modestly but consistently

When a stock is falling but the business underneath is accelerating, that disconnect is worth investigating.

Step 3: What’s the Bigger Picture?

Strong quarters can be flukes. So I always ask: What’s the company actually doing to drive that growth?

Here’s what I found:

• MRVL is now partnering with NVIDIA to deliver custom AI infrastructure using NVLink Fusion

• Its data center business has tripled in two years and hit record levels this quarter

• In April, it sold its automotive Ethernet unit to Infineon for $2.5B, allowing sharper focus on AI and networking

• Management cited "great progress in our custom AI silicon business"—that’s not a casual phrase

In short, they’re not just growing—they’re concentrating.

Step 4: Sentiment & Signals

I pay attention to what the smart money is doing—not to follow blindly, but to see if the market is shifting.

• The call/put ratio on MRVL was around 2.5 to 1, suggesting institutional optimism

• Most of the call activity was centered on $65–$75 strike prices

• Long-dated options into Jan 2026 had noticeable premium flows—some trades over $100K

• Among analysts, 86% maintain “Buy” ratings, and none have downgraded to “Sell”

Again, this doesn’t confirm anything—but it adds to the mosaic.

Step 5: Balancing the Risk and Reward

At the time I spotted it (around $68–69), the analyst target range ran from $85 on the low end to $133 on the high end. That’s 23% to 93% upside, depending on how optimistic you are. The downside? Support appeared strong around $60.

More importantly, the growth—63% YoY revenue, 158% EPS—is the kind of acceleration that often justifies multiple expansion.

Wrapping It Up

This isn’t about predicting where MRVL will be in a month. Maybe it keeps going. Maybe it chops sideways. The point of this post—and this blog—is to show how I break these things down.

Price structure gives early clues. Fundamentals confirm or challenge the thesis. Then you map the macro, strategic, and sentiment layers on top.